The French Presidential election has turned in the result that this blog predicted, which was that Marine Le Pen of the Front National would come second. In my view this was because the FN’s message was wrong in parts for this particular election at least. The French do not seem to be ready for a break with the European Union and breaking with the EU and abandoning the Euro currency was one of the FN’s messages. Although there were a large number of voters, especially from the young, for the FN, it was not enough to overcome the large number of voters, among that number older voters, who were scared of what hostility to the EU might bring. There have been generations of voters in France who have been brought up on the horror stories of the past about what Europe was like before the EU. The wars and terrible privations suffered by France during World Wars One and Two have had an effect of frightening French voters away from nationalism and towards supranationalism in the form of the EU. The utopian idea that European nations should be locked in a legal, fiscal and political union so that no European nation can ever again be threatened by another European nation is an attractive one for many of the citizens who live in EU countries. Those nations, such as France, who have heard and felt the tramp of the jackboots of an invader in their own streets understand the danger of nationalism that goes bad and this has scared people away from nearly all forms of nationalism.
Although the messages put out by Marine Le Pen and the FN about the growing Islamic threat to Europe were correct and have been accepted by a large minority of the population, these messages were not enough to overcome the political and cultural inertia of the French electorate. I believe that a growing proportion of the French population are coming to recognise that Islam is a threat to both the Christian and atheist French citizen and also to those of Islamic heritage who want to live in freedom and not under shariah or be ruled by Mullahs. Unfortunately, although the truth telling about Islam was the correct thing to do, other aspects of the FN’s plan for government probably did more harm than good. As I said earlier the hostility to the EU would probably have turned off many of those French voters who might recoil at the horrors that Islam has brought to France but are even more horrified of a Europe where Germany is not permanently hemmed in by having very close links with other nations, such as France. There were also in my view people put off by those FN policies that could be viewed as more socialist than free market. Import tariffs and massive government expenditure on re-industrialisation scare people in the wallet and let’s face it, a lot of people in a lot of countries vote in a spirit of self interest. The import tariffs would have made imported items more expensive and the cost of re-industrialisation would have had to be met by French industry and the struggling French citizen by way of increased taxation.
This was the wrong election at the wrong time for the FN. The message that the FN put out about the danger to France from Islam was the correct one and a popular one, but it was not strong enough as a message to overcome voters worries about the FN’s economic policies and policies towards the EU. Maybe the situation regarding Islam in France needs to get a whole lot worse before the French choose politicians who will deal effectively with the problem? I believe that the European Union has to die, as it’s an entity that has outlived its usefulness and has become a large factor in the economic, social, political and cultural problems that many EU nations are facing. The EU looks as if it is dying but it’s not dead yet. Voters, especially in places like France are not going to choose the hostility to the EU option unless the social conditions in France get so bad, because of Islam, that conflict with the EU looks a whole lot less of a problem, or a more remote problem, than bands of marauding violent Islamic savages on the streets of French towns.
It takes a long time to turn around the ship of state. It also takes a long time to put into reverse the culture that is the engine room of that ship and is a much longer term project than one Parliamentary or presidential term. Those, such as Nigel Farage who said that 2022 may well be the French election that changes things are probably correct. The French are not ready for a nationalist government as their fears, their history and their political culture precludes them from choosing one. The 2022 Presidential election will be the interesting one and the 2017 was a mere prelude to that. What Marine Le Pen can be congratulated on is building her movement from a low base and reinventing her party and also getting the message out there that Islam is a problem for civilised nations. Ms Le Pen has done pretty well in the Presidential elections and has shown that her party is a professional outfit and I am very curious as how this increased stature will affect French Parliamentary elections that is coming up later this summer. Will it increase the FN’s representation or will it stay the same or drop? If it drops then the problem may not be with the FN’s message about Islam but more about the FN’s history, heritage and other policies. Maybe the time will soon come for those who believe that the French have a right to defend their people, borders and culture to see that although nationalism may be popular, the FN may not be the vehicle to achieve that? A new nationalist party free of the taint of the FN’s past may do better than expected especially as it is the traditional parties who took the biggest hammering at this presidential election.
