There has just concluded a case at the Central Criminal Court, that of Labour MP Fiona Onasanya that is almost a carbon copy of another very famous criminal case, that of the Liberal Democrat Chris Huhne back in 2013. Both these cases involved Members of Parliament either being convicted of or admitting the charge of perverting the course of justice by trying to blame others for a motoring offence. In Huhne’s case the outcome was that he was gaoled for eight months of which he served nine weeks. He resigned from the Commons and a by-election was called which was won by the Lib Dems but with a greatly reduced majority.

The ‘Huhne precedent’ raises the possibility that Fiona Onasanya will also be sentenced to a term of imprisonment, unless that is she can bring up some spectacularly good mitigation, which looks to me to be unlikely in this case. Huhne at least had the decency to plead guilty when faced with overwhelming evidence, Fiona Onasanya on the other hand did not and challenged this case vehemently. The decision by Onasanya to plead not guilty to this charge looks to me to be either stupidity or arrogance on her part as being a solicitor she should have known the law and known the penalties for breaking that law.

Onasanya has been suspended by the Labour Party because of this conviction and there is some doubt as to what will happen after her sentencing in January 2019. If she gets some sort of non custodial sentence or an immediate custodial penalty of less than 12 months (unlikely in my view bearing in mind the Huhne precedent) then she will not be automatically forbidden from the House of Commons. She might in this scenario brazen it out and stay in the seat as an independent until the next general election that is scheduled for 2022. However, what could be more or equally likely is that she is given an immediate custodial sentence and has to resign from the House. This will trigger an immediate by-election.

However there are significant differences between the constituencies of Eastleigh that Huhne held and Peterborough which Onasanya currently represents. When Huhne resigned the Liberal Democrats held the seat at the subsequent by-election with a relatively small majority of 1771. Peterborough on the other hand is only held by Onasanya with a tiny majority of 607.

Because of the small majority that Labour hold Peterborough and the high profile nature of Onasanya’s court case, it is very possible that the Conservatives could retake the seat that Labour won from them at the 2017 General Election. If this happens then it will not be too horrific a prospect for Labour in the short term, after all they are already in opposition. I don’t believe that it will affect Labour’s Commons numbers too much, but it could be a boost for the Conservatives if they can retake this seat. If the Tories are savvy then they will put a Brexiteer candidate up as the constituency voted 60.9% in favour of Leave at the EU Referendum and also start some pre by-election preparatory work by highlighting Labour’s appallingly bad judgement in selecting Onasanya for this seat.

Looking at the Huhne precedent, and the fact that Onasanya chose to deny this charge and can therefore get no sentencing credit for pleading guilty, I think we are looking at Onasanya getting the sort of penalty that will render the idea of her hanging onto the Peterborough seat as an independent as untenable. If Onasanya gets the sort of penalty that requires her to resign from the Commons then we may be looking at a by-election in Peterborough sometime between the beginning of February and the end of March 2019. I think that the Tories have a very good chance of retaking this seat if they can put up an appropriate candidate and if they work hard at getting both regular Tories and disaffected swing voters out. If enough swing voting people who are disgusted at Onasanya’s behaviour hold their noses and vote Tory, then this could push Labour into second or even third place in any by-election.

Whether a by-election is called next year ultimately depends on the decision of the Judge in Onasanya’s case. If the judge goes for a hefty custodial sentence for Perverting Justice then there will without doubt need to be a by-election,if not and she gets a sentence that doesn’t disbar her from the Commons, then the people of Peterborough will continue to be represented by this criminal for a few more years to come.