We have, in the near future, 2nd May in fact, local council elections in England and Northern Ireland. There are also elections for six directly elected mayors and some by-elections in council seats that will be held on the same day.
Normally the three main parties would expect to be able to call on the volunteer labour of their supporters in order to canvas support for their parties so that their voters will be motivated to get out and vote. The Conservatives in particular have had a historically strong and dedicated set of local volunteers that have worked hard to get their vote out. Members of local Conservative Associations have been the footsoldiers of the Tory campaign machine in local elections and they are are vital for persuading people to vote Conservative via door knocking and similar canvassing activities. The party activists from the different parties also play their part in getting people to take seriously these local votes, which sometimes have dire levels of participation, more seriously.
But, with the Tories in utter disarray in Westminster over Brexit, it is to be wondered whether during the forthcoming elections whether the Tories will be able to get as much support from their members as they have in the past. An article in the Telegraph and quoted in part by Conservative Home should really worry the Tories. It appears that normal Tory party members are so disgusted by the behaviour of Theresa May’s government over the Brexit debacle that many of those who would normally turn out to canvas for Tory candidates, may refuse to help this time around.
Conservative Home said:
“Conservative activists are refusing to campaign for the party and donations have “dried up” because members feel that Theresa May has betrayed them over Brexit and the Government has “completely lost touch with voters”, council candidates have warned. In a letter to the Prime Minister, more than 100 current and would-be Tory councillors state that they are unable to muster the volunteers needed to effectively fight next month’s local elections because “belief in the party they joined is gone”.
For there to be 100 Tory candidates to be unable to get the manpower needed to do the door knocking and leaflet distribution that political campaigns depend on is pretty bad. There are always moribund or apathetic party branches in various places, party associations where it is difficult to get members off of their backsides because the members are there for the social rather than the political activities. But this problem being claimed by Tory candidates looks much worse than that. This looks like a much more widespread problem than a few lazy branch members in a few wards. This looks like a party which is being rapidly abandoned by their grass roots.
It is donations and volunteer help that has kept Tory party branches alive even in areas where there isn’t that much chance of a Tory victory because these members believe in Conservative principles. It is the money and help that has been forthcoming from members which has sustained the Tories as a viable party of government. Despite what some may say, elections are not only won by advertising or social media presence or the performance of high profile Tories on Newsnight. Elections are won in large part by ordinary members getting out there and convincing voters that their candidate is going to represent them and their values. Without active membership parties can quickly become moribund and lack the ability to motivate voters to get out to the polling station at election time. It’s becoming obvious to me that the Tories are losing that most vital resource, the grassroots talent and enthusiasm and this is going to bode very ill for them at the forthcoming local council elections.
Some people are even resigning from the Tory Party and posting photos on social media showing them cutting up their membership cards. At present this sort of public resignation is a but a trickle but it wouldn’t take much to turn this into a flood. With real conservative leaning members and party workers gone, the field will be left clear for the ‘Red Tories’, the conservatives in name only, many of whom would be politically far more suitable to the Liberal Democrats. With a mass disgust at the behaviour of the Tories in Westminster and members starting to up sticks and leave, we can look forward to a ‘conservative’ party that will be dominated by clones of pro EU, pro big government types who currently dominate the party and who will continue the party’s foolish route of appeasing the Left on social issues.
I fear the Tories are in for a very nasty surprise at these local elections. From reading around I get the impression that there is a despondency among Tory members of an intensity that I cannot recall happening that often before. Even during the years when Tony Blair and Gordon Brown dominated British politics, the Tories were able to put together effective campaigns and mobilise their membership for campaign activities. I’m not sure that the Tories will be able to campaign effectively this time as too many of their party members seem to be righteously angry with the leadership.
The Tories have been the great survivors of British politics, able to weather political storms and morph to meet and exploit the changes in society such as extensions to the electoral franchise and have overcome at times sometimes vehemently divisive issues within the party. However, the anger that is being expressed by Tory members and the so called ‘strike’ by party volunteers when it comes to canvassing etc, may be a precursor of either complete party destruction or some sort of split. In any event I think that the Tory party that we may have known in the past, a party that was patriotic, committed to promoting freedom and defending the realm, is all but dead. We shall see just how close to death the Tories are by how much support, or not as the case may be, their candidates will be able to get from those who may have previously spent years promoting conservative values and the Conservative. When the volunteers go then the party dies and we maybe seeing the death of the Conservative Party as we have known it. Where are the campaigners for these latest elections going to come from if not from the Tory party members themselves?
