According to a number of reports that I’ve seen in recent months, Iran is going through a time of extreme upheaval. All classes and groups seem to be protesting the Islamic regime that runs Iran and my thoughts turn to whether or not these protests will be successful.

This is what Michael Leeden of Front Page Magazine has said about the current situation in Iran.

There is a revived revolution in Iran, forcing the regime into a harsh crackdown all over the country. Most observers think the uprising against the Khamenei regime is the most intense ever, now exceeding one hundred cities and towns all over the country. Hundreds of protestors have been arrested, scores have been killed, and control over several major cities changes by the hour. A tweet from Alireza Nader sums up the situation:

half of Shiraz is on fire. As are parts of Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan etc. Regime forces are shooting at people freely, even from helicopters. There’s no way casualties are in the hundreds. The regime has blacked out Iran so it can kill freely

The country is on fire. All classes, all tribes from the Persians to the Kurds are fighting the security forces and the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij, and an increasingly divided Hezbollah. The leaders of the regime are unrestrained in their crackdown. In order to keep their actions as far as possible from public view, the leaders have killed off the internet links with the outside world, and despite American boasts that Washington can turn on the internet at will, the regime has kept communications with Iranians at historic minima.

Now there is a high level of hyperbole in Mr Leeden’s article but reading between the lines it does seem that the Iranians are chafing at the chains that have been bound in by the religious and political leadership of Iran. Like many other mass protests it was a small spark that seems to set off this fire, in this case a raising of fuel prices, but it has broadened out into an expression of disatisfaction by Iranians with the way that they are governed.

If Mr Leeden’s claim that cities are changing hands between government forces and protestors then that is indeed a much higher level of protest than we have seen in Iran for a long time. There were massive protests against the Islamic regime in Iran but they were ten years ago in 2009. There was a different geo political world then when compared to today. For example the USA is no longer led by Barack Obama who gave the world the impression that he was far too cosy with the Iranian regime than he really should have been. The USA is now led by a much more pugnatious President in the form of Donald Trump, who although must keep one eye on not letting the Iranian situation get out of hand and cause massive regional and possible supraregional conflict, is less likely to play softball with the Iranian government.

This raises the possility that in Iran the people, who have been brutally repressed by the religious government of Iran, might just suceed in toppling the government where other groups have failed. If they do achieve this then it will be a long hard slog for the anti government forces. The Iranian government is, as it has done in the past, trying increasingly brutal methods in order to stop the protests and has electronically isolated the country to hide its crimes from the eyes of the world.

If the protestors do manage to topple a government that has killed tens of thousands of critics in the past then it will remove not only that people’s consistent tormentors, but will also cut off support for a great number of violent Islamist terror groups that the Iranian government funds and facilitates. If or when the Iranian government falls the world will be faced with another question, what will the Iranian people put in place of the rule of the Ayatollahs and will an orgy of revenge on former senior and junior regime operatives send the country into abject chaos?

Iran is changing, but what will be the result of that change? Only time I’m afraid will tell.