It is relatively easy to track the progress of epidemics and pandemics once they have passed. As an example, we know most of the factors in how the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic spread and can even identify its possible ultimate source in China. Epidemiologists and historians can and have used parish burial and alms records to track and document the Yersina Pestis outbreak in London in 1665 and there’s even a possible idenfication of the ‘patient zero’ in the case of HIV/AIDs.

Tracking the progress of an epidemic whilst it is occurring is much more difficult. That is especially the case when there is, as in the United Kingdom with regards to Chinese Covid19, a haphazard system of identifying and counting cases, tracing contacts and testing. There are credible suspicions that the UK Government is undercounting Covid19 cases and deaths, since the UK is only counting deaths and cases of those who die after being admitted to hospital. There has been, for example, little done to clarify the number of cases and deaths in places like care homes or those who may be suffering from a mild form of the disease who may not seek medical attention. It is not beyond the realms of possiblity that the figures that are being handed out by the Government and in particular by groups like Public Health England, are woefully inaccurate and may even be untrustworthy. They could be higher or they could be lower, the problem is we do not know.

What we do seem to be seeing so far, based on the limited and less than comprehensive figures available, is that certain areas of the country and by extension certain communities, seem to be more afflicted by this virus than others.

Left wing media organisations such as the BBC are claiming that research is revealing that ethnic minorities are much more prone to infection by Covid19 than others and this claim does seem to be borne out by evidence. The US Surgeon General has also pointed out that, possibly because some African Americans are prone to Asthma, Covid19 cases in this group are higher than in other groups. The questions that we should be asking is why this should be the case and is this a phenomenon that can be shown to be true across the board in every area that has a high proportion of ethnic minorities?

I’ve been doing some digging on the figures of Covid19 infections in various towns, cities and counties in the UK. I took a selection of places, some with high concentrations of minorities and some which are mostly populated by native Britons. What appears to be the emerging pattern is that areas where there are few minorites often have the least number of cases, which is something we could expect as these are mostly rural areas where there is less overcrowding. Also some ethnic minority dominated areas are doing much better than others. The London Borough of Newham for example, an area heavily dominated by Islam, has had, according to Sunday’s figures, 702 cases of Covid19 identified for a population of 352,005. Newham’s demographic make up is 28.97% total White including White British and over 40% total Asian of all types. Bradford on the other hand which is 67.44% total White and 26.83% combined Asian has only had 359 cases for a total population of 537,173. As you can see from this example, Bradford is doing much better than Newham, despite having a large contingent of Asian residents.

Assuming the figures I’ve found are correct and that there is not undercounting of Covid19 figures in Bradford, we need to try to find out why Bradford is doing better than Newham, or certain areas in the Midlands? Both Newham and Bradford have a lot of Muslims in them and they both have problems with ignorance, excessive religiousity, poverty and inbreeding among its Pakistani heritage residents. Inbreeding is a known factor in making an individual vulnerable to disease. We can’t completely dismiss the idea that inbreeding might be an issue, since Newham’s neighbouring borough Redbridge is well known to have excessive numbers of child deaths, one in five, due to inbreeding among its Muslim residents. Is it quite possible that the issue of tuberculosis in places like Newham could be a contributory factor as to why Newham is being hit so badly by Covid19 when compared to Bradford? Newham is a known TB hotspot and although the amount of TB in Newham has been reduced in recent years, it’s still much higher than it should be. We will not get a complete picture of this until the epidemic is over. I would not be at all surprised to find that those whose lungs are damaged by a combination of TB and inbreeding are also more susceptible to Covid19.

It’s quite possible that there may be cultural and religious factors also involved in the stark difference between Newham and Bradford. The minorities of Bradford may be more educated and therefore more aware of the need to stop the spread of Covid19 than those in Newham? I know Newham quite well and although like Bradford it has a lot of Islam, the sort of Islam practised in Newham is a particularly backwards and fatalistic form. I’ve been informed by my sources in the area that some of Newham’s Muslims are taking the view that they should leave Covid19 to Allah and just go about their business normally.

Newham is also an area where there is a significant amount of Islamic extremism and this extremism may also be a factor in increasing Newham’s Covid19 problems by discouraging Newham’s Muslims from cooperating with the health guidance. Whilst I am more than ready to concede that poverty and overcrowding may well be factors in why Newham has been so badly hit by Covid19, I don’t think that we should completely dismiss religious and cultural factors in the spread of Covid19 in Newham. This is because we have a ‘test bed’ for religious and cultural factors in the spread of Covid19 coming out of Israel. In Israel, Haredi Jews in places where they dominate such as in cities like Bnai Brak, have failed to comply with social distancing guidelines, and these are also the areas which have been badly hit by the virus. The situation in this city is so bad that the Israeli government has almost completely sealed off the city from the rest of Israel in order to stop the spread of Covid19.

This is not the time for political correctness. If there is a problem with certain communities in particular areas with regards Covid19, then they should admit that this is the case. I’ve no desire to see anybody, no matter who they are, succumb to Covid19 but there is a dire need for honesty on the part of the UK government about cultural practises and their possible links to infection. This is a problem for all of us and should be seen as such. Whilst admitting that there are problems may damage ‘community cohesion’, the alternative of not admitting that there are communal issues or cultural or religious factors in Covid19 infections is likely to do a great deal more damage to the nation and to the health of British subjects as a whole.