The first president of the United States of America, George Washington once warned against the creation of political parties. To a large extent he was correct, with political parties comes partisanship and the temptation offered to politicians to put party or ideology ahead of the general good of the country and its people.

However, despite President Washington’s counsel, political parties end up being created as like minded politicians group together. This is probably a natural course in politics as when you have an assembly of politicians whether in Congress or in the UK House of Commons or the Israeli Knesset, you will get various factions and interest groups springing up. Therefore any nation that has a democratic nature will have political parties. It was probably naive of President Washington to assume that his counsel would be made into reality.

But back to the present day, mostly, and also some context. What is happening in the USA is pretty bad, the political, social and cultural situation is probably the worst its been in my lifetime. There is a ‘President’ who was elected in an election where there were many legitimate questions about how he was elected and copious allegations of fraud, some of which look credible even though others do not. The Congress is now dominated either by those with extremist leftist political views or who are individuals who may be unable or unwilling to stick their heads over the parapet. The third branch of the US Federal Government, the judiciary in the form of the Supreme Court appears to be paralysed with fear over what might happen if they involved themselves in a matter that was obviously political. The country has also been subjected to months and months of violence from Leftist groups that was on a scale that dwarfed the incident on January the 6^th.

Things as I have said before are not good in the USA. The USA, or rather its government systems are not in a good place.

However, since its founding in the late eighteenth century, a short time when compared to how long the various nations that make up Great Britain have existed, America has proved remarkably resilient. It’s birth was in the form of a bloody revolution that was not wholeheartedly supported by the bulk of the populace. It had to fight a war against what was then the greatest military power on Earth and its people had to face awful retribution from British forces and the British state in order to create the nation. It then faced a second attempt by the British to destroy it in the War of 1812 and the British and those nations and mercenaries who had allied with the British, did considerably more damage to the US capital city than did the few nutjobs did earlier this month. British troops burned down the White House and sent President Madison and his family fleeing.

The USA then faced a number of problems, economic, social and political all through the first half of the nineteenth century including becoming under the Democratic-Republicans a one party state that still ended up in an inconclusive electoral campaign in 1824 which had to be sorted out by the House of Representatives which installed John Quincy Adams as President. This election marked the end of a period of political consensus that has been called ‘The era of Good Feelings’ by historians.

Political battles became somewhat of the norm in the USA after the 1824 election and big questions and political splits, far greater than those of today, such as the arguments over slavery. New parties sprung up to represent both the interests of an ever widening electorate and to represent the different currents in US politics. The new or reorganised parties such as the Democrats, Democratic-Republican, Whig, Free Soil and nativist parties and even an anti-Masonic party made sure that the field of US politics was never going to be as smooth as a millpond, but the wisdom of America’s Founding Fathers and their Constitution kept the country from falling apart. Arguments over slavery, tariffs, the banking system and currency and the fallout from the economic crash of 1837 along with leaders who seemed particularly weak and who tried to compromise with slavery, such as Franklin Peirce all stressed the country in ways that maybe even the Founders may not have envisaged but America survived.

It even survived a ruinous Civil War that took the lives of 620,000 Americans from both the Northern Union States and the breakaway Confederate States. Slave and free took part in the horrific battles that made up the Civil War and men became equal in death even when they were not equal in life. The battles, the deaths in POW camps and of disease, made the US Civil War the most calamitous conflict in US history, dwarfing the 405,000 US deaths in World War II.

But despite a Civil War of such calamity that it could have destroyed a lesser nation, the USA survived and stayed loyal to its constitution and it rebuilt and eventually became the nation where all men are created equal, as the Founders intended. It’s been a difficult journey to where the USA is today but it it got there.

The point I am trying to make is that although things are bad in the United States today with what is being called an ‘asterisk president’ in the White House from January 20^th, the problems today are not unique. The USA has survived economic problems, a civil war, weak and unprincipled leaders, political corruption, the shame of slavery and racial injustice and so much more. It has survived in large part due to its Constitution and I suspect and of course hope, that the Constitution will again come to the rescue of the USA.

So that is the past as I’ve outlined it. What of the future?

Well the future is going to be interesting to say the least, certainly as interesting as the period between 1800 and the Civil War with big political splits erupting and I suspect another of those periods where new political parties will be created. It is quite possible that a new third party will emerge, one based on the America First ideas promoted by President Trump. I foresee that such a new party will damage the Republican Party as too many Republican politicians are being seen as careerist time servers. I foresee great problems for the Democrat Party as it pushes more and more leftist policies and takes on a more internationalist flavour. I reckon that a lot of people, including a lot of anti-Trump Democrats, will become disillusioned by the Democrats and abandon them. A new ‘America First’ type party may also do great harm to the Republicans, especially in those states where the Republican leadership and political classes are seen as being a bit weak. I certainly foresee a political realignment going on in the USA.

On the legal front I see a lot of First and Second Amendment cases coming to court and possibly cases based on the Federal Government of Biden/Harris’s conduct and maybe even cases under the Fourth, Ninth and Tenth Amendments, being brought. The Left have a habit of overreach and it is quite possible that if the incoming administration attempts to impinge on the rights of Americans without a sound and solid reason, this is not wartime after all, then the courts will be busy.

The mid-term elections are also going to be a time of great political interest and turmoil. I believe that the sort of policies that the Democrats may push may not be readily accepted by the American people and all it will take is a period of economic turmoil and a high profile political failure to damage the Democrats in the mid-terms, just as President Jimmy Carter had his re-election prospects destroyed by his economic problems and by the Iran Hostage Crisis. Whether such a situation would be a boost for the Republicans or a new party of those who see themselves as American patriots, is difficult to see at this time, but I do suspect that the mid-terms will be interesting to watch.

Politically, I don’t believe that Trumpism, or to give it what I believe is its proper title of ‘constitutionally controlled populism’ as Trumpist populism isn’t exclusive or nativist or lacking in concern for those of minority view, will go away any time soon.  I certainly see it lasting for the next one or two election cycles either as part of the Republican Party or as a new insurgent party.

The record for insurgent parties, is not as good as it would be if the USA had a proportional electoral system and  is similar to that of the UK where you have two main parties that fight it out and there has not been any change in the pattern of Liberal / Tory or Tory /Labour for years.  In the UK it has been nearly one hundred years since Labour replaced the Liberals as one of the two main competing parties.  The USA has had a two established party system even longer than that of the UK Labour/Tory one.  Since the Presidential Election of 1852 when the Whig party ceased to be an effective party and since then all Presidential contests have been between Democrats or Republicans with the exception of the National Union party of Abraham Lincoln and Andrew Johnson but even then National Union was just another name for the Republican Party. A third party has a big hill to climb in the USA.

However, there is something very different happening today.  Donald Trump is anything but a machine politician and is somewhat of a force of nature.  In some respects he reminds me of Theodore Roosevelt with a big personality and someone who left a big impression on the USA.  I believe that the sort of constitutionally controlled populism that Mr Trump represents, would be a factor in a change in fortune or rather prospects for a party that is either led by Mr Trump or which follows the same America First ideals as Mr Trump has promoted.  Even if Mr Trump is prevented from standing again if he is impeached via the 25th Amendment, I suspect that many of those who voted Republican because of Mr Trump, could make a new politically insurgent party a credible challenger.  Again this aspect of US politics is something worth watching.

I believe that America is in for a rough time over the next few years and this particular Briton is praying that they will get through it. However, I know enough about US history and that remarkable thing called the US Constitution to understand that it is the Constitution that has ensured that America has never had a Hitler, a Stalin, an Idi Amin, a Mao, a Salazar or a Franco running the nation. Whilst many have tried or desired to be despots in America, they have always failed.

America faces a number of challenges from attacks on freedom of speech right through to an internationalism not based on mutual respect between nations but the demands of the elite. If Americans could engage with the Constitution and use it to the advantage of the people then they will survive. If on the other hand they merely bovinely consume what Big Tech, Hollyweird and the current political classes want, then they are doomed. Your ancestors put in your hands, in the form of your Constitution an artefact of great power, it is up to Americans to either use it or lose it. Remember the wise words of a President who was once heavily slandered by the media of both the US and the UK, Ronald Reagan, who said: ““Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.”

Below is a link to the current text of the US Constitution. I beg my American readers to read it lest they end up like us in Britain where we can be arrested for merely making jokes and where a lack of obedience to the insanity of a tiny but vociferous group of Leftists results in complete destruction of those who fail to genuflect to what they disagree with.

Click to access CDOC-110hdoc50.pdf