With increasing numbers of Cubans taking to the streets to protest the way that the Communists have mismanaged their country, it’s probably correct to ask at this point whether ‘Cuba Libre’ or Free Cuba, might be becoming a reality? These protests appear to be the biggest ones against the Communist government of Cuba since the mid 1990’s following the collapse of the Communist government’s benefactor and major trading partner the Soviet Union. Back then, despite the problems that the collapse of the USSR had caused Cuba, the Cuban government managed to hold on and re-establish their hold over the country. Since then, things have been relatively quiet although more Cubans have decided to flee the country over the years as the economy continued, as it does in all Communist states, to fall apart.
But could these protests be different from those in the past, is it possible that this time the Communists, who have been in power in Cuba since the late 1950’s, be toppled? I would not say that it was assured but it’s more likely than it was during the last round of big protests nearly thirty years ago. This time things might very well be different. Today many Cubans have at least some form of internet which wasn’t available to them in the past, they can see how other nations are faring and how poorly Cubans have been served by Communism. Also it appears that Cuba has badly handled the issue of covid vaccinations and rather than use tried and tested vaccines produced by Western nations, have attempted, without that much success, to develop their own. Add into the mix of poor covid handling and Cubans being able to see how badly their nation is being governed the fact that, due to the pandemic, one of Cuba’s big foreign currency earners tourism, has been curtailed and you have the recipe for a perfect storm.
The Trump Administration of the USA has also helped to bring this situation about by increasing the sanctions on the Communist regime in Havana, sanctions that to Joe Biden’s credit as presidential successor, have been kept in place. The inherent failures of Communist management of the economy have been exacerbated by these sanctions and although these sanctions have hit the ordinary Cuban pretty hard, they have also had the effect of making the Government of Cuba less popular with Cubans.
The Communist government of Cuba is obviously very worried about these protests, they’ve not been as readily suppressed as such protests have been in the past and it is a measure of how worried the Communists are that they’ve created astroturf pro-government protests in order to counter the freedom protestors. Such an action of putting two antagonistic groups on to the street does risk increased civil disorder and I believe that the Cuban government would not have done this unless there was a dire need to do so both to counter the protests and give their regime the false veneer of popular support.
The Communists have made an almighty mess of Cuba, although what preceded them was not exactly perfect and the mess that the Communists have made has become noticed by Cubans. For a long time Cubans just put up with the many problems that the Communists caused, if it was impossible for them to leave to join the large community of Cuban-Americans in places like Florida, USA. However, what seems to be happening now is the phenomenon that every oppressive government fears, the growth of a movement of people who have not only had enough of the problems, but who also feel that they have little to lose by taking to the streets.
The Cuban situation could end up in a number of different scenarios. The Cuban government could regain control and things would go back to their normal repressive normality. Another world player could become involved, such as China which could not only prop up the Cuban government but also exploit Cuba to gain a foothold in ‘Uncle Sam’s Backyard’. But whether the Chinese would want to embark on such a confrontational path is debatable. The Chinese government is not stupid, would it risk a Cuba Missile Crisis redux for what might be very little gain?
There’s also the possibility that Cuba descends into anarchy and civil war and becomes another corrupt Caribbean basket case like Haiti. If that is the case then everyone loses, the Cubans, the Americans and the entire region. On the more positive side it could be the case that the Cuban Communists get toppled with the help of the USA and Cuba ends up as a regular multiparty democracy which can get on with repairing the damage that sixty years of Communism has wrought. Let us hope and pray that not only do the people of Cuba have the Communist monkey taken off of their backs but also that what replaces Cuban Communism isn’t something far worse.
My own preference and hope is that the Communist tyrants who run Cuba step down voluntarily and steer the country towards being a multiparty liberal democracy with property rights, freedom of speech, religion and conscience along with a mixed but mostly capitalist economy. Unfortunately tyrants very rarely give up power when asked, they cling on even though by hanging onto power they cause massive bloodshed. Sadly this is likely to be what happens in Cuba before the Communists finally relinquish power, unless the Americans step in, something that although might ultimately end well, will cost both American and Cuban lives. I believe that the Cubans are in for a bit of a hard time over the next few years if the protests continue but they are already facing hard times whether they protest or stay silent.
