Tomorrow is the byelection in the Bexley and Old Sidcup constituency which comes about due to the tragic and untimely death from cancer of the Conservative MP James Brokenshire. There is a lot of attention being focused on this byelection because it’s being seen as a test of the current government’s popularity. The Tories are certainly not taking this safe seat for granted and have sent a lot of Cabinet big guns into the area as part of the campaign to keep the seat in the Tory fold.

As the election is tomorrow I thought I’d don my ‘Mystic Meg’ or rather ‘Sceptic Peg’ outfit and try to predict some of the outcomes. I’m not saying that I will be correct but some outcomes might be more possible than others.

As the government is currently beset with all sorts of problems of their own making that are now cutting through to voters such as the rise in fuel bills, the green nonsense promoted by Boris and his wife Carrie aka Princess Nut Nut, the return of Tory sleaze and the ongoing failure by the Tories to fight back against the Left’s culture war, this is a tougher fight than normal for the Tories. I’m not at all sure that the Tories will lose this seat but if it does then that might be because normally Tory voters might be tempted to stay at home out of disgust at the government and not vote.

Although there have been many demographic changes in London it remains to be seen whether these changes are enough in this area to turn this seat Labour. It might be enough if Tories stay at home but then stay at home Tories could also benefit the Lib Dems. On the subject of the Lib Dems they have many things NOT in their favour, mostly related to having their Janus faced behaviour exposed to the public during the Coalition years. I don’t believe that there are enough local issues to swing the seat to the Lib Dems of the sort that there were in the Amersham byelection which was dominated by HS2 and unwanted housing developments. Whilst the Lib Dems could pick up some protest votes from the Tories there might not be enough to make a difference and those who are likely to protest vote for the Lib Dems are unlikely to protest by voting Labour.

Unless there is a major upset of an unpredictable nature I reckon that the Tories will hold onto this seat but with a greatly reduced majority. Some of this reduced majority might be because some regular Tory voters might be tempted to vote for the Reform Party on the grounds that the Reform Party is a bit more of an actual conservative party than the regular Conservative Party.

I don’t see any scenario that would see the Reform Party gaining this seat, despite the effort they are putting into it but I believe that it is distinct possibility that they will save their deposit at least. If they are going to be placed and not at the bottom with the likes of the Monster Raving Loony Party then I reckon that they will be in either third or fourth place. Based on what I’ve seen coming out of the news reports and by looking at previous election results I don’t see Labour getting the massive 20% swing needed with honest votes to take the seat even though they were in second place in 2019.

Third, fourth and fifth places in this contest are likely to be fought out between the Greens, the Lib Dems and Reform. Not sure how the Greens will do this time. They came fourth in 2019 and had a roughly 1% rise in support. Whether they can keep this rise in support now that people are starting to realise what Green policies cost them is another matter. The Lib Dems were in third place in 2019 with just under 4000 votes. If Reform pushes the Lib Dems into fourth or even fifth place then the Lib Dems might be into deposit losing territory.

Reform is the wild card in this seat. UKIP did well there in the 2017 General Election and pushed the Lib Dems into fourth place. I would suggest that many local Tory voters returned to the Tories when UKIP imploded but Reform could pick up these Tory / UKIP voters this time.

My conclusion is that the Tories will hold this seat but with a reduced majority. That’s what some of the betting firms are saying and if people are laying money on this result then they must be confident.

Now let’s take a look at the ‘undercard’, the minor parties and independents. I don’t see any other scenario here than lost deposits. The Monster Raving Loony Party, English Democrats, Rejoin EU, the rump of UKIP, Christian People’s Alliance will all lose their deposits. Also heading for the lost deposit list is the Heritage Party led by David Kurten. This started out as a relatively solid social conservative party that I saw some future in once, but was disturbed to see how quickly both the party and Mr Kurten descended into anti-vaccine nutbaggery and tin foil hat nonsense. The big question for me regarding Mr Kurten is whether he will get more or less votes than the Monster Raving Loony Party? For a more detailed assessment from me of the current situation with alternative political parties then follow this link.

The late Mr Brokenshire was a very very popular local MP. It’s quite possible that some of that popularity might rub off on the slightly less popular, if some vox pops are anything to go by, Tory candidate Louie French. Mr French is not being as public as some would like and there have been some negative commentary about this aspect of his campaign but it may well be that the Tories are playing things safe and not letting there be any opportunity for any gaffes that might be made by Mr French to be amplified by a hostile media.

I don’t see any way that the Tories will lose this seat unless there is some sort of major unforeseeable upset. However I do believe that they will hold this constituency with less votes than last time. The Tories will win but it will be a seat of the pants win.