On the 16^th of December the voters in the Shropshire North constituency go to the polls to vote in a by-election caused by the resignation of Conservative MP Owen Paterson due to a sleaze scandal related to outside work that he was engaged in. This seat in its present incarnation has been solidly Tory since 1997 and even before that was represented by the Tory MP John Biffen. Digging further back into the history of the seat before it was recreated in 1983, this seat or rather its predecessors has been Tory since 1835 when the Conservatives took the constituency from the Whigs.

Shropshire North is the epitome of a safe Tory seat but it’s not a seat that the Tories can take for granted. Because the previous MP resigned due to sleaze allegations this issue may well be one that is live and kicking for the voters in a way that it was not at the previous by-election in Bexley and Old Sidcup. Looking at the various betting odds, the Tories could hold this seat but as with Bexley if they do hold it then it’s likely that it will be with a reduced majority.

Other issues such as Britain’s open borders and Boris and Carrie’s green extremism are also likely to be live issues for the electorate which might well bring out protest votes for the Reform Party who appear to have put up a credible local candidate for this contest. The Tories have also been hit by two long-standing local Tory councillors abandoning the the party for minor parties, one going to Reform and one going to Reclaim.

I don’t see Labour doing that well in this seat. At the last General Election the Labour candidate got 22% of the vote as opposed to the Tories who got 61%. However that was an election where Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader and with a new leader Labour might rise a few percentage points but not enough to take the seat. I can’t see Tories voting for a Labour Party that is vehemently opposed to all that they believe in.

A much bigger threat to the Tories is posed by the Liberal Democrats. This Janus-faced party is going hell for leather to win this seat and the bookies are placing the Lib Dems in second place as challengers. According to my contacts and sources the Lib Dems are pulling in activists from all over the place to campaign in this seat. As well as their local activists the Lib Dems are said to be bussing in activists from Worcestershire, Herefordshire and the West Midlands in order to get boots on the ground.

On the subject of sleaze, the Lib Dems have been alleged to have been pretty sleazy themselves with regards to this contest. They have been said to have scrubbed details about their candidate’s Remain sympathies from their website so as to be more appealing to Brexit supporting local voters. The Lib Dems have also it has been alleged by Guido Fawkes, to have broken electoral law by disclosing postal vote figures prior to the conclusion of counting in order to persuade voters to see the Lib Dems as doing well in this seat.

The Tories do have one thing in their favour in this seat. Their candidate Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst comes across as an impressive candidate with an impressive background in the military, in medicine and the law. However no matter how good he looks on paper the big question is can he connect with the voters in a contest where the previous Tory MP had to resign in disgrace. If voters see him as a man who they can relate to and who will voice their concerns to Parliament then it should go well for him but if he is too aloof or distant then his prospects might be hurt.

There are two main dangers for the Tories in this contest as I see it. The first is from the Lib Dems who may well take votes that may previously have gone to Labour and pick up protest votes by know nothing voters who just want to send a message to the Tories but who can’t bring themselves to vote Labour. The Lib Dems might be assisted in their quest for the seat by the Reform Party who are likely to pick up votes from true conservatives who are fed up with voting for a Tory party that doesn’t deliver conservative policies or have conservative values. Reform are on 50/1 odds of winning the seat but votes for the Reform Party might help the Lib Dems by taking votes away from the Tories. Unlike in the Bexley and Old Sidcup contest I believe, based on looking at the electoral maths in this seat, that it will be much more difficult for Reform to hold onto their deposit as they did in this seat. This is because the usual repository for protest votes, the Lib Dems are much stronger in this seat than they were in Bexley.

As for the undercard parties and candidates much of what I said about them with regards to Old Bexley and Sidcup applies here. I see a slew of lost deposits and a race to the bottom between the Heritage Party and the Monster Raving Loony Party.

To conclude: The Lib Dems are the major threat in this seat and this bunch of sleazeballs will do anything and say anything no matter how dodgy or questionable that might be in order to win. These Lib Dem tactics should not be ignored by the Tories but actively countered. It’s quite possible that the Lib Dems could win here but then lose the seat back to the Tories at the next General Election. However looking at the history of the seat which is one that stayed Tory even during the New Labour landslide years,the Thatcher years and during the sleaze years of John Major’s premiership, the most likely outcome is that the Tories hold this seat but with a very slim majority.