There has been an epic amount of speculation going on about the explosions that occurred in the Nordstream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The world and his wife are riding their own political hobby horses over this incident and blaming the Russians, the Germans, the Americans etc.

But what if there is no miscreant? What if this is not the work of some state or non-state actor? What if this is the result of piss poor maintenance of the pipes during a period when the pipeline was full of gas under pressure in a very cold seawater environment. Now I’m not a hydrocarbon scientist so I cannot verify what the blogger LawDog believes might have happened and his theory is being debated in the comments at their blog, but to me it looks at least partly plausible. The author claims to be familiar with the hydrocarbon industry where proper servicing of equipment is a vital safety factor. LawDog’s allegation that there could have been a methane ice plugs in the pipeline which have been allowed to build up due to poor servicing of the pipeline and which have then split the pipes, looks to me to be relatively plausible at least.

LawDog said:

Well, actually, I’d like you to meditate upon “hydrate plug”, but give me a moment.

Under certain circumstances of pressure, temperature, and water presence natural gas/methane will form solid hydrates, with concomitant amounts of fun.

For the Chinese definition of fun, anyway.

Keeping hydrates from forming is a constant battle, requiring vigilance, expertise, diligence, and constant water removal. If any of these things slack at any time — you’re getting hydrate formation.

The presence of solid hydrates in a pipeline can cause flow issues (causing cracks), destabilize the pipe itself (more cracks), and cause fires (bad. Very Bad), but the big issue (pun intended) is when you form enough hydrates that it blocks the pipe entirely (see: Hydrate plug, above).

A hydrate plug is one massive pain in the tuchkiss to remove, and removal of said hydrate plugs is not a task to be undertaken by idiots, rank amateurs, morons, the terminally unlucky, or stupid people.

The Recommended Best Practice to clear a hydrate plug is a vvveeerryyy slllooowww depressurisation from BOTH ENDS, SIMULTANEOUSLY.

How slowly, you ask? For a pipeline the size of Nordstream we’re talking weeks.

As I said earlier I’m unfamiliar with this source, but it certainly seems to be a potential cause that is worth discussing. It’s very easy to blame someone for an incident like the Nordstream loss but sometimes it’s not a deliberate and singular act that causes a problem like this pipeline loss, but a number of engineering issues. In a similar way it’s like the Chernobyl accident, the workers in the plant were not deliberately setting out to destroy the reactor but a cock up happened. Maybe the Nordstream loss is the result of similar operator incompetence and wrong assumptions?