I was alerted by a Tweet from Patrick O’Flynn the political commentator and member of the Social Democratic Party, to a recent YouGov survey about attitudes of Tory voters to various issues. Of course, as one would expect, the state of the economy comes highest in the minds of Tory voters but immigration is now the second most important thing on these voters minds. This is unsurprising as a combination of the Channel Invasion Scandal and anger at other forms of mass and often inappropriate types of immigration is growing. You only have to peruse social media or talk to people who are bewildered by the sudden dumping of Channel Invaders to get a sense of just how salient this issue has become. What also seems apparent is this anger is not race based or one that has its roots in xenophobia, but one that is purely concerned with numbers.

It’s an issue that the Tories need to get a grip on before it starts to hurt their vote. The Tories picked up a lot of non-traditional Tory voters in 2019 primarily because of the Brexit issue and part of the concerns that led people to vote for Brexit was a desire to reduce migration both legal and illegal in order that the country can deal effectively and properly with the problems that mass migration has brought. A lot of people I’ve spoken to both in real life and online since 2016 wanted some form of better control of Britain’s borders and maybe a pause on mass migration of a type that the USA had between the late 1920’s and 1965. Such a pause I’ve heard, especially from the likes of the SDP, will enhance integration and lance the mass immigration boil.

A key issue with regards to immigration at present is the matter of the invasion across the Channel. The new Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, a person who, along with Kemi Badenoch, I would like to have seen lead the Tories, has promised to get to grips with this issue but what has been proposed following meetings with the French government, looks very much like the old failed policy of paying vast sums of money to the French to police the Calais area and prevent illegals crossing the Channel. This really is a case of ‘meet the new policy, it’s the same as the old policy’ although this time with even more money going to France and but with the additional problem of taking UK police officers away from general crime fighting here in order to work in France with the French government.

Unfortunately, many potential and former Tory voters will look at the agreement between the UK and France and conclude that it is just more of the same and an example of how insanity is doing the same failed policies over and over again in the hope that next time they will work. For those of us who are more cynical about this government what this agreement with the French looks like is taxpayer funded electioneering for the Tory Party. The Tories know that to keep their base voting for and working for the party along with trying to salvage their chances in the former Red Wall seats, they need to be tough on mass migration. Sadly this policy is not going to do this. There are no solid promises on reductions in numbers of illegal entrants just a vague mention of how this policy will bring a long term ‘decline’ in numbers.

I very much doubt that this policy will be the winner that the Tories think it is. I don’t believe that it will bring voters flocking back to the party and that it will confirm in some people’s minds the narrative that the Tories are unconcerned about mass and illegal migration as it doesn’t directly affect Tory MP’s. It’s unlikely that former Tory voters will turn to Labour as they are likely to be even more committed to open borders than the Tories seem to be. What is likely to happen is that disgusted Tory voters will stay at home on election day, unwilling to vote for a party that they perceive as laughing in their faces and taking them for mugs. This will almost inevitably lead to a Labour government, a government that is likely to crash and burn because of their policies economic and social. The Tories could have done so much better with regards this issue but failed to listen to the concerns of voters and it’s likely that both they and the country will end up worse off because of it. I have decided that I will not throw away my hard won right to vote by staying at home. Instead I will vote for a challenger party such as Reform or the SDP and the big electoral question for me is whether other former Tory voters or those who can’t stand Labour but can no longer vote Tory, will do the same?